23 Sports Betting Thoughts
- Profitable bettors can go bust by over-estimating their edge.
- If you don’t understand math then you are betting on borrowed time.
- Everyone talks about variance as a negative but there’s positive variance too.
- Statistically significant sample sizes are much larger than most people think.
- Know the difference between causation and correlation.
- Any bettor who says they’ve never lost their bank is a liar.
- Betting with an edge offers superior returns to any other investment class.
- Two of the most under-rated aspects of gambling are mindset and bankroll management.
- Don’t love a team – love a line.
- All professional bettors have a strong work ethic and high levels of discipline and confidence.
- Lazy bettors lose.
- Causation and correlation are two very different things.
- Be prepared to not bet if you’ve missed a move or doubt that you have an edge.
- Ignore any betting advice from announcers or color commentators.
- 55% winners is very impressive and very profitable.
- Life as a professional bettor is more lonely than it is glamorous.
- Profitable edges become obsolete faster now than ever before.
- Blindly following a steam move (after the move) is just plain dumb.
- Casinos get rich on the Gamblers Fallacy.
- If you don’t know your edge you probably don’t have one.
- You should assume that every new strategy will start below expectations.
- No-one can avoid drawdown so don’t be surprised when you go through it.
- Being a contrarian is not easy but it is essential.
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