- The simple value betting formula all bettors should understand
- Why mainstream stats and news has no value whatsoever
Long term profit is the holy grail of sports betting and here is a very simple yet powerful equation to determine value betting:
Reality – Perception = Profits
Capitalizing on the difference between perception (what the market expects to happen) and reality (what actually happens) is the only way to make money as a bettor.
Odds of -110 represent an implied probability of 52.38%. This means the only way to achieve profitability at those odds is to win 52.4% or more of your bets.
Another way of looking at this is by considering a standard coin toss. We know that in the long run a fair coin will come up Heads 50% of the time and Tails the other 50%. But assume for a moment that the public perceived Heads as a better bet so it was priced at -110 and Tails was +110 in a no vig market.
What this means is the difference between the reality (Tails will win at 50%) and the perception (odds of +110) is the profitability.
Value Betting
Value betting is an important concept for sports bettors to understand because the only way you can succeed is by finding pockets of value or following professional bettors who have shown that ability. You must identify whatever is undervalued by the betting market relative to its positive effect on performance. Finding value bets is the key to unlocking long-term success as a sports bettor.
The typical mainstream stats and news are highly unlikely to be a source of consistent profits. That is because their importance and influence is already ‘baked into the cake’ that is the betting odds. So a dominant win in their last game, a Pro Bowl quarterback returning from injury, or a superstar having a career year are not valid reasons to bet on a team. You will win half your bets but that’s not a high enough rate to beat your bookie.
If you take a similar mainstream approach each season then you should understand that your results won’t change by anything other than variance. Some days you will enjoy random luck and you may even have a couple of winning months. But every year you will finish in the red overall.
Achieving Profitability
To be a long-term winner it is essential that you:
- Value value above all else
- Bet numbers not teams
- Be comfortable opposing the market
- Go deeper and/or wider into your handicapping to find under-rated factors
